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'Materials Challenges Are Changing the Way We Do Business'

While the macro trends of smaller, lighter, faster and "greener" will always apply, there are several areas that I see as significant for 2001: low-k dielectrics, device packaging and board-level protection.

First, stress relief in packages will continue to drive material selection.

Next, the move to copper and low-k dielectrics in ICs will allow increased device speed and reduced power consumption. However, advances in IC functionality will continue to push the need for thermal dissipation.

Compensation for CTE mismatch, increases in die size and interconnect density challenges will drive advancements in materials that can reduce stress in ever-shrinking packages and devices which lack sufficient space for a conventional heat sink.

A step change in conductivity is needed before thermally conductive materials can meet the roadmap requirements.

Wafer-level processing, the key to cost reduction, will move the packaging operation toward the fab, requiring materials with combinations of properties, including ionic purity, high temperature stability, resistance to moisture and processing simplicity.

Environmental solutions, such as lead-free solders that raise reflow temperatures, will drive the need for new materials with high temperature tolerance.

The desire to reduce VOC-containing materials also creates the demand for new material solutions, many of which are in place today. Materials research will continue to address enhanced property combinations while satisfying environmental needs, as well.

All of these materials challenges are changing the way we do business. Users are demanding our technology, design assistance, processing know-how and application support-as well as low-cost products and services. [dowcorning.com]

Ian S. Thackwray
Executive Industry Director-Electronics
Dow Corning
Midland, Mich.

'... Consumers and Suppliers Are ... Focusing on the Total Cost of Ownership'

The most meaningful trend we are monitoring is the continued increasing accountability of service, materials, and equipment suppliers to our customers' total cost of ownership. In other words, suppliers' "value delivery propositions" must directly align with their customers' bottom line.

Today's savvy consumer is much less concerned with merely shaving pennies on the unit price in the purchasing office. Those savings pale in comparison to what can be achieved through the process efficiencies delivered by a premium product. In fact, any monies saved on a "bargain" purchase might actually contribute to substantial losses downstream. This effect is multiplied by the number of production lines a manufacturer operates.

Our industry's most sophisticated consumers and suppliers are leading a growing trend of focusing on the total cost of ownership. Already we are seeing the beginnings of a shakeout, with premium suppliers being valued for the bottom-line profits that they deliver!

In this vein, sophisticated customers are willing to pay a higher per-unit price up-front when they can see that it positively impacts their bottom-line profits. Premium vendors and their customers will reap the rewards of their sophistication; the rest will be punished.

Greg Evans
President
Indium Corporation of America
Utica, N.Y.

'Demand for Wire-Bonded Devices Will Remain Strong'

Assembly equipment suppliers recorded several consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth in demand in 1999-2000.

Kulicke & Soffa, meanwhile, has continued to ship assembly equipment at near-record levels, and the demand for the corresponding materials has remained strong. Our flip-chip business has also been operating at record levels of business and inquiries.

Based on the high level of activity that equipment manufacturers are experiencing, as well as input from subcontractors and IDMs, capital spending on greenfield fabs during 2000 and 2001 and the current demand for consumer devices, the assembly equipment cycle will accelerate in the second half of 2001 and continue into 2002.

Demand for wire bonded devices will remain strong throughout the year, as assembly equipment and materials suppliers continue to drive cost and pad pitch down to meet increasing performance requirements.

Unit volumes for flip-chip and CSPs will continue to increase, fueled by the need for high pin counts, superior electrical performance and low-end, form-factor-driven solutions.

Many factors could impact this forecast, such as a weakening of demand for PCs. At this time, however, the outlook for semiconductor assembly equipment, CSPs and flip-chip devices looks extremely promising. [kns.com]

Alex Oscilowski
Co-President
Kulicke & Soffa Industries Inc.
Willow Grove, Pa.

'We Expect Analog Markets to Continue Their Blistering Growth'

Significant changes in key semiconductor markets this year will make it clear that the PC industry is no longer the semiconductor industry's dominant driver.

We expect to see substantial changes in the semiconductor business cycle-and overall market growth-driven by increasing semiconductor content in wireless handsets, networking equipment and Internet infrastructure. These product niches are combining to create new mini-booms, equivalent in magnitude to the entire industry growth rate of the mid-90s.

We also expect analog markets to continue their blistering growth, as more people get connected to more complex information, all of which needs analog technology to make the data understandable to human eyes and ears.

Digital systems, such as a GSM cell phone or a DVD player, contain a great deal more analog content than their analog equivalents. Highly integrated analog subsystem chips, which perform these functions, will continue to become mainstream, along with the integration of analog functions onto previously pure digital devices.

The Web has also fueled the concept of "alternative" Internet access devices-information appliances that allow people to get the information they want anywhere, anytime without the need for a computer.

First production quantities of such devices are just now being shipped by multiple manufacturers, but 2001 will see information appliances become mainstream and broaden internationally.

This will drive a tremendous increase in innovation for new form factors and usage models, based on highly integrated Internet-compatible processors.

Other demands for new chip designs will put unprecedented pressure on the silicon design infrastructure to develop pre-validated, easily integrated, reusable IP blocks. Those preparing for this now will be the ones who cash in on new design wins and market share in 2001. [national.com]

Michael Polacek
Vice President, Information Appliances Division
National Semiconductor
Santa Clara, Calif.