Current Issue An Independent Journal Dedicated to the Advancement of Chip - Scale Electronics May - June 2001 Email the editor

Gene Selven Publisher

We have enjoyed a tremendous growth period over the last decade, with technology at the forefront during this unparalleled market run.

It is difficult to believe that the brakes could be applied so quickly-almost without warning. Yet, we still see strength continuing in certain market segments.

Reflecting on my 35 years in the semiconductor industry, one thing is certain-there will be a recovery! As the world moves faster and faster, so will the recovery take place sooner than expected.

Economic pundits who follow these matters calculate that past recoveries took 11 months on average.

If the market runs true to form, we should see the market begin its new growth cycle beginning in the late third quarter.

Another truism is that in a market pause or correction (and with cutbacks in spending, hiring and salary freezes), one area that is hardly touched is the R&D budget for the development of new products.

Many of the companies I talk to verify that mature assembly products are those currently being hit the hardest. At the same time, I hear that next-generation products are scheduled to launch in the second and third quarters.

These new products will be applied in the assembly and test of advanced interconnect products, involving chip-scale, flip-chip and wafer-level packaging.

I have always maintained that you must keep your product and company name in front of your customers during an economic slowdown.

It's a proven fact that companies who continue their advertising and marketing promotion programs, despite a slowdown, enjoy a faster recovery than those who do not. Remember, when your competitor cuts his programs, but you sustain (or increase) yours, you've grabbed an excellent opportunity to increase your market share!

At the risk of sounding self-serving, to successfully launch new products there must be money set aside as part of the R&D budget. Advertising, trade shows, PR and direct mail are an integral part of this program and must be included in your launch schedule planning!

To those companies that have decided to put their marketing programs on hold until the downturn is over, we say, "good luck."

We urge the rest of you to look beyond the short-term, and take a proactive position with an aggressive promotion program that contributes to the forthcoming upturn!

Gene Selven, Publisher

[gselven@ChipScaleReview.com]