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| Prospects for the New
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Welcome to the new millennium with its
dazzling prospects, promises (and maybe a few problems, as
well).
The Semiconductor Industry Association
(SIA) has announced a four-year "up cycle" with worldwide
chip sales increasing 63 percent between 1999-2004. On an
absolute basis, this forecast means that chip sales will reach
$234 billion by 2004.
This growth is being fueled by a "seemingly
insatiable demand" for low-cost personal computers, digital
cameras, smart cellular phones and television set-top boxes.
Each of these products requires chip-scale electronics to
meet the form, Žt and function of "next generation" electronics!
The heart of chip-scale packaging in
the past has been memory and microprocessor ICs. Analog ICs
are now joining these categories, as wireless communications
begin to drive new market demand.
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What does this all mean? Historically, forecasts
(both up and down) are rarely accurate over a long period. That's
a given. However, as Chip Scale Review follows the trail of chip-scale
applications through frequent discussions with our advertisers,
contributors and readers, we Žnd this technology to be gaining momentum
at a pace that may surprise even the forecasters!
Remember when all the excitement was in the
wafer fab? Well not anymore! Chip-scale electronics, most notably
at the wafer-level, is changing the face of traditional assembly
and test in ways that few predicted even a handful of years ago.
We recently visited National Semiconductor
in Santa Clara, Calif., for an update on that company's advanced
packaging plans. In the course of our debrieŽng, Maria Laughlin,
product technology director for standard analog, noted, "In the
next 10 years, some of the largest advances will be in packaging."
Maria's comments echo what we have been hearing from many quarters
in the industry.
By the end of the SIA's forecast period, 2004,
our industry will take on an entirely new look. This will be driven
by the accelerating demand for the "fuel" of the new millennium-the
IC-as both die size and package continue to shrink and to reach
new levels of performance.
As we enter our second year as an independent
publication, we want to thank you for your continued support. As
we promised when we took over the reins as publisher, we have met
several of our early goals, among them, issuing a timely publication.
You should receive each bi-monthly issue mid-month-January/February
by mid-January, contingent, of course, on USPS handling. Additionally,
we have applied for BPA auditing, which will assure our advertisers
that they receive the quality readers that we promise them.
We know there's still room for improvement,
and that's where you come in. Write me at gselven@aol.com.
Sincerely,

Gene Selven
Publisher
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