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An Independent Journal Dedicated to the Advancement of Chip - Scale Electronics

January - February 2000

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  Prospects for the New Millennium

Welcome to the new millennium with its dazzling prospects, promises (and maybe a few problems, as well).

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) has announced a four-year "up cycle" with worldwide chip sales increasing 63 percent between 1999-2004. On an absolute basis, this forecast means that chip sales will reach $234 billion by 2004.

This growth is being fueled by a "seemingly insatiable demand" for low-cost personal computers, digital cameras, smart cellular phones and television set-top boxes. Each of these products requires chip-scale electronics to meet the form, Žt and function of "next generation" electronics!

The heart of chip-scale packaging in the past has been memory and microprocessor ICs. Analog ICs are now joining these categories, as wireless communications begin to drive new market demand.

What does this all mean? Historically, forecasts (both up and down) are rarely accurate over a long period. That's a given. However, as Chip Scale Review follows the trail of chip-scale applications through frequent discussions with our advertisers, contributors and readers, we Žnd this technology to be gaining momentum at a pace that may surprise even the forecasters!

Remember when all the excitement was in the wafer fab? Well not anymore! Chip-scale electronics, most notably at the wafer-level, is changing the face of traditional assembly and test in ways that few predicted even a handful of years ago.

We recently visited National Semiconductor in Santa Clara, Calif., for an update on that company's advanced packaging plans. In the course of our debrieŽng, Maria Laughlin, product technology director for standard analog, noted, "In the next 10 years, some of the largest advances will be in packaging." Maria's comments echo what we have been hearing from many quarters in the industry.

By the end of the SIA's forecast period, 2004, our industry will take on an entirely new look. This will be driven by the accelerating demand for the "fuel" of the new millennium-the IC-as both die size and package continue to shrink and to reach new levels of performance.

As we enter our second year as an independent publication, we want to thank you for your continued support. As we promised when we took over the reins as publisher, we have met several of our early goals, among them, issuing a timely publication.

You should receive each bi-monthly issue mid-month-January/February by mid-January, contingent, of course, on USPS handling. Additionally, we have applied for BPA auditing, which will assure our advertisers that they receive the quality readers that we promise them.

We know there's still room for improvement, and that's where you come in. Write me at gselven@aol.com.

Sincerely,

Gene Selven
Publisher

 
 
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