Downturns are never welcome. Still, they offer some intangible benefits: They push us to think outside the box and reshape our usual mindset. They teach us never to take the status-quo for granted, as things do change. Europe's role in the worldwide electronics industry changed a lot during the 1996 and 1998 downturns. Before 1996, industry in the U.S. was, like today, mainly driven by high performance, and Japan's industry was ruled by consumer electronics. And Europe? It was difficult to label Europe's role. That caused the rest of the world to feel that Europe was lagging behind in terms of technology development and competitiveness-something that was certainly true for IC packaging. Then, after 1998, Europe was finally granted the leading role in mobile communications. In 1999, half of all cellular phones were produced here. This triggered major advancements in packaging technology development, and placed Europe at the cutting edge of the packaging roadmap. Sweden's Ericsson developed the world's first viable RF System-in-Package in 1998. In that same year, CS2 in Belgium developed the highest integration in an automated backend assembly line. In 1999, ST Microelectronics launched Ecopack, the first corporate-wide, lead-free packaging program. And the list goes on. Will Europe achieve a stronger role in advanced packaging after the current downturn? As a European, I strongly hope so. But I see at least four reasons why the outcome might be different. First, the mobile communications push is much weaker now. Ericsson outsourced its handset board assembly to Flextronics, while delegating specification and design of next-generation products to the newly formed Sony Ericsson venture. Next, the exceedingly high 3G cell phone license fees imposed by European governments have placed a huge burden on mobile service providers. The results of these harsh fees will be reflected all the way down through the electronics industry food chain-further slowing the already difficult introduction of 3G phones. Convergence A third element that will shape packaging in Europe is the current trend toward convergence in electronics. The melding of voice, data and video into a single mobile product will change our cell phones into high-performance consumer products. So here we are again: High performance today means the U. S., South Korea and Taiwan (and soon mainland China); and consumer means Japan. Where's Europe? Needless to say, highly integrated RF sections will still be key for products wins, but more in terms of commodity functions. The differentiating factor will no longer be how good your RF front-end is, but rather how fast your baseband data/video processing unit can run. To me, the final element of this quartet-advanced package developing-is the most crucial. Mobile communications is supposed to be the main driver in Europe. Yet, from a practical business standpoint, and with some notable exceptions, such as ST Microelectronics and Infineon, there are few important European activities focussing on stacked-die CSP, wafer-level packaging, thin wafer handling, Chip-on-Flex (COF) or integrated passives. At the same time, there are an increasing number of industrial activities in RF packaging both in Japan and in the U.S., especially on the U.S. east coast. Last year, I attended three European IMAPS conferences, where a total of more than 150 papers were presented. Fewer than 4 percent discussed COF; under 2 percent examined wafer-level packaging issues, while 2 percent focussed on thin wafers. Only one paper reviewed stacked die. Yet, these issues are all considered key enabling technologies by any advanced packaging road map I have seen. More than 20 percent of the papers were on flip-chip technology, and almost 15 percent covered environmental issues. Today, most people believe Europe's leading role in mobile communications is a given fact, something that will never change. But the events of 2001, in Europe and overseas, should reinforce the lesson that change is life's constant companion.
|
Copyright © 2001