I visited Munich, Germany, in March to attend SEMICON Europa. The purpose of my trip was to take a reading of the overall business climate on the Continent. I also recently attended a Silicon Valley SEMI industry lunch at which Brett Hodess of Merrill Lynch presented his forecast on semiconductor capital equipment spending through next year. At the industry lunch, Art Zafiropoulo, Ultratech Stepper CEO, presented the history of the semiconductor capital equipment business. He began in the 1950s and traced its growth and the growth of the top 10 suppliers over the past five decades. Mr. Zafiropoulo discussed how and why the top 10 changed globally and who they are today, with Applied Materials moving up the ladder over this period to lead the pack. But let me return to my trip to Munich. As I visited with top American and European executives on the SEMICON floor, it became very apparent that those companies that introduced new 300 mm wafer-bumping products (bonders, probers, placement equipment and software) were pulling crowds to their booths, and even taking orders. New Products These are the same companies-Electroglas, K&S and Semitool-that kept their R&D programs intact during the 2000-2001 market downturn. At Europa, they were reaping the benefits by announcing new bumping products. Companies without new products, and those without a focus on bumping, complained about the lack of Europa visitors! Merrill Lynch's Mr. Hodess projected a 30-50 percent growth in capital spending in 2003, with 300 mm equipment representing 40 percent of that growth! This is a remarkably optimistic forecast, but one that he, as a representative of Wall Street, feels very confident about. At the same time, Mr. Zafiropoulo stated that most semiconductor devices will employ bumping as their interconnect system in the next 10-15 years. As to the "Grinds," wafer-thinning (back-grinding) equipment was also very much in evidence at Europa, with the application of chip stacking in a package very hot. There were many new companies "on stage," showing their stuff at the show as well. In my next column, I will cover the bumps and grinds that will take place at the year's biggest industry event, SEMICON West. Meanwhile, feel free to add your comments by e-mailing me at gselven@chipscalereview.com. 
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